Fraudsters are getting smarter, faster, and harder to detect. Automated tools already test stolen cards, build fake profiles, scrape account data, and hit online checkouts with thousands of micro-attempts at once. By 2026, these tactics will feel even more coordinated. The tools used by criminals are not only improving but also becoming easier to access.

Merchants will face more pressure because fraud rarely hits payment providers first. It hits the checkout, the refund team, the dispute queue, and the bottom line. And when fraud incidents rise, payment costs often rise with them. In this environment, merchants need a strategy that avoids rigid systems and leans toward flexible layers, smarter data controls, and infrastructure built for rapid change.

Payment orchestration supports this shift because it lets merchants plug in stronger tools, adapt workflows, and route transactions through the providers that handle risk best. The conditions for fraud are changing, and merchants need a structure that keeps up.

The growing presence of synthetic customers

Synthetic identities are no longer a fringe tactic. They are now a mainstream tool for fraud operations. Attackers combine real data with fabricated details and create a profile that looks legitimate enough to slip past onboarding checks or simple risk filters. These identities build a purchase history, test the system carefully, and then strike when merchants least expect it.

Synthetic users are also harder to detect because they behave like real shoppers. They browse, abandon carts, redeem coupons, and even sign up for loyalty programs. By the time the fraud shows up, the profile feels familiar, not suspicious. To defend against this, merchants need layered signals: device data, behavioral patterns, payment history, and higher-resolution identity checks. A single risk engine is rarely enough.

A surge in friendly fraud and refund manipulation

Disputes that appear legitimate but stem from misuse are rising throughout ecommerce. Shoppers may claim they never received an item, file a chargeback after using a product, or dispute a renewal they forgot about. Some people misunderstand the rules. Others abuse them deliberately.

This category is growing, and payment teams need better visibility into why these cases happen. If you need a deeper breakdown of how this type of fraud works, Gr4vy explains it clearly in its guide on refund abuse and first party fraud:
refund abuse and first party fraud

Refund abuse increases operational pressure and can hurt approval rates if issuers begin to distrust a merchant’s traffic. Better communication, accurate order tracking, and stronger dispute documentation help reduce false claims before they reach the issuer.

Account takeovers fueled by automation

More customers store payment methods online, which makes accounts an attractive target. Attackers use automated scripts to test passwords, brute-force logins, or hijack sessions that appear valid at first glance. Once inside an account, the fraudster can use stored cards or reorder high-value items without ever touching the checkout form.

A strong defense includes multi-factor authentication, clear password reset flows, and a tokenized approach to stored cards. Merchants can find guidance on safe storage practices in Gr4vy’s article on how to store card data safely: how to store card data safely

Attackers will continue to refine their methods, so merchants need flexible tools that can detect unusual behavior before the purchase reaches the PSP.

The rise of agent-driven fraud

AI agents are becoming part of online shopping, but fraudsters will try to use the same technology. Automated systems can place orders, test stolen credentials, scrape product data, or imitate shopping patterns. The real challenge is that most current fraud engines cannot tell a safe agent from a harmful one.

This new category of risk will push merchants to adopt more adaptive fraud tools, stronger user permissioning, and better handshake mechanisms between platforms. As agent-driven commerce grows, the difference between a legitimate purchase and a scripted attack becomes harder to identify.

Cross-border fraud targeting global merchants

International expansion brings more revenue opportunities, but it also expands the threat surface. Fraudsters favor cross-border attacks because approval logic, authentication rules, and issuer responses vary heavily by region. A transaction considered low risk in one country may raise concerns in another.

Global merchants must watch for patterns that shift by geography. Some markets have weaker identity checks, others have looser dispute rules, and several rely on payment methods that provide minimal buyer authentication. Fraudsters know this. They look for regions where friction is low and regulation is uneven, then launch coordinated attempts across multiple merchants.

Using different PSPs for different regions helps reduce exposure, and payment orchestration makes this possible without rebuilding the checkout each time. Smarter routing sends traffic to the provider most familiar with that region’s risk signals.

Payment methods that open new attack paths

As wallets, instant bank transfers, and alternative payment methods gain traction, fraudsters test them for weaknesses. Every method has its own risk model, dispute flow, and verification process. Attackers look for gaps.

Some wallets rely on weaker device checks. Some bank transfer methods have slower settlement windows that criminals take advantage of. Others lack the authentication depth that cards provide. Each one becomes part of the fraud surface unless the merchant has tools that can evaluate risk by method instead of applying the same logic everywhere.

A flexible payment stack that supports method-specific rules, routing, and authentication helps keep these attacks from slipping past basic checks.

Credential harvesting and session spoofing

Fraudsters continue to gather credentials through phishing, malware, and social engineering. What makes this more severe in 2026 is the sophistication of session spoofing. Attackers replay sessions that look legitimate or hijack an active user’s browser window. These attacks bypass the checkout entirely and go straight into stored-card charges.

A strong defense includes short session lifetimes, MFA prompts for sensitive actions, closer monitoring of device changes, and tokenization of all stored card data. When stored cards remain secure, account takeover attacks lose much of their power.

Fraud bursts during PSP outages

When a PSP slows down or experiences downtime, fraudsters strike. Outages create blind spots because merchants are busy troubleshooting and risk teams lack clear visibility. Attackers test stolen cards, push through rapid-fire transactions, or probe risk filters during these windows.

Merchants with a single PSP are more exposed because they cannot route traffic elsewhere. A multi-PSP setup helps maintain control, and fraud tools stay active even when one provider has issues. Payment orchestration makes these fallback paths possible without changing the checkout.

How payment orchestration supports a stronger fraud strategy

Fraud evolves too quickly for rigid systems. Merchants need the ability to:

• Switch PSPs when risk patterns change
• Test new fraud providers without rewriting code
• Route risky transactions to stronger verification flows
• Separate agent-based traffic from human traffic
• Update rules quickly as new fraud types emerge
  

Payment orchestration gives merchants this flexibility. Instead of relying on a single provider’s fraud tools, orchestration makes it possible to build a layered defense. It also ensures traffic can be tagged, segmented, and routed through the most appropriate path.

Better routing also reduces false declines. When an issuer responds with unclear or inconsistent signals, merchants can use insights from the credit card decline codes guide to better understand what happened: credit card decline codes: updated list and how to fix them

A flexible orchestration layer helps merchants turn these insights into practical improvements.

FAQ

Why is fraud expected to rise in 2026?

Tools used by attackers are becoming more automated, more scalable, and easier to distribute. At the same time, merchants support more payment methods and serve more regions, which increases the attack surface.

Which fraud types will be the hardest to detect?

Synthetic identities and agent-driven fraud are among the hardest to spot because both behave like legitimate users. They blend real data with automated behavior.

How can merchants prevent account takeovers?

Short session windows, multi-factor authentication, strong password reset flows, and secure card storage help reduce the impact of stolen credentials. Tokenization adds another protective layer.

Will alternative payment methods reduce fraud?

Not always. Some APMs offer stronger authentication, while others introduce gaps that attackers can exploit. Merchants need method-specific risk rules instead of treating all methods the same.

Can payment orchestration reduce fraud losses?

Yes. Orchestration lets merchants add fraud tools quickly, route risky traffic to stronger checks, and avoid downtime that fraudsters exploit. It also supports region-specific routing and flexible rule changes.

Fraud in 2026 will not come from one direction. It will come from synthetic profiles, automated agents, coordinated bursts, and attacks that exploit global payment differences. Merchants who rely on static tools will fall behind. A flexible structure with strong routing, multi-provider support, and better visibility is essential.

Payment orchestration gives merchants the agility they need to respond to these shifts. It strengthens risk controls, improves resilience, and allows teams to adapt as threats change.

Contact Gr4vy to learn how orchestration can support a stronger fraud strategy in 2026.